Usually, after Apple announces a new gadget, people are excited about the things they saw. But this time the vibes on the comment sections of large tech-sites feel totally different. People are disappointed because the iPad is a weak blend of iPhone and MacBook. It lacks connectivity and storage options big time (no card slots, no USB) and it is not usable as a phone unless using third-party VoIP applications. It brings along the tight restrictions from the iPhone (you can only buy apps and media via iTunes) while offering hardly any advantages of a notebook. Although I probably wouldn’t care, some complain about the absence of a camera and I figure that the comparably short battery life is an issue for people who’d like to use it as an e-reader.

So after all I see only two ways that could lead to a success of the iPad:

1. The Apple factor: A large portion of people will buy it because it’s a beautiful gadget from Cuppertino and they will ignore the fact that they are forced to use a not-even-that-cheap device exactly the way Apple’s designers want them to.
2. The iPad is received by consumers as a mobile high-end web and gaming platform.

I can imagine that sitting on a train or in a cafe and having the iPad to surf the web would be a far more comfortable experience than doing the same on an iPhone. But that’s basically the only area in which I see the iPad as a winner. Apple is great at establishing new products – the iPhone being the grandest example – but history shows us that even Apple can fail…and I see the chances of Apple failing with the iPad higher than with any other product in their portfolio.